fantasy football 2026: Draft Vs. Do not draft
Draft Vs. Do Not Draft for 2026 Fantasy Football
By: Andrew Ferguson
2026 has a lot of obvious players you’re going to draft. I’m not going to bore you with the details of why you shouldn’t draft a guy like Bijan Robinson. If you pass him up, you’re either taking Jahmyr Gibbs, or your league values WRs more and you’re torn between Puka and Ja’Marr Chase. You really can’t go wrong. But, past that, is there such a thing as a safe pick? There are players in the first round that I think could ruin your season for putting faith in them. I’m going to give you the safety meter on the top 50 going into this season in hopes I can help someone else in need:
Draft: Bijan Robinson, Ja’Marr Chase, Jahmyr Gibbs and Puka Nacua
Not sure I really need to go into much detail here. They are the clear top 4. You’ll be safe and sound with any of these guys. Puka is the only person that has a slight injury history so it’s something to monitor before your draft. If he’s on the field, he’s your hero of your fantasy league for 2026.
Do Not Draft: Christian McCaffrey
A tale as old as time. Looking back at all the RBs that finish number 1 overall in fantasy never bounceback. He’s aging and he’s already been the number 1 RB in fantasy 3 times. There is no shot he’s able to do it again especially after the workload in 2026. Passing on him this year.
Draft: Jonathan Taylor, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown, James Cook, CeeDee Lamb, Saquon Barkley, Justin Jefferson
So out of the first 12 players on this year’s board, there is only one person apparently I don’t like. You will be safe with all of these guys and if you have the 11th or 12th pick with those beloved back-to-back picks, any combination of getting lucky two of these guys would be a fantastic start to your draft.
Do Not Draft: Ashton Jeanty, De’Von Achane Derrick Henry, Kenneth Walker III, Drake London, Josh Allen
This is where most people start thinking about their 2nd pick and start making mistakes. Jeanty is already dealing with an ankle injury and is on a pretty bad team, Achane will have less receiving work due to playing with a mobile QB and Henry is aging. I know he’s a unique freak of nature but I’m just not going to gamble on him having a crazy big year again. Walker is a tough one on this list because all I hear about is how they’re going to use him. He’s only been a top 16 fantasy RB once in his career and doesn’t offer a lot of receiving upside. I’m passing on him even with the hype. Drake London is a wonderful talent, but the QB play concerns me for how high he’s being drafted. I think he will barely be a 1,000 yard receiver and at this point in the draft, we need big numbers. Josh Allen should be the first QB off the board, but at this point in the draft, it’s too early. If you know me by now, I like to wait on QBs. I know it’s tempting if he slips, but trust me, you’ll be fine with a QB late.
Draft: Omarion Hampton, Chase Brown, A.J. Brown, Brock Bowers, Nico Collins, Trey McBride
These are the safest 2nd round picks you can have. I know drafting a TE isn’t flashy but it’s these two guys, then everyone else. Having essentially another WR1 in your TE spot is a huge advantage throughout the entire season. Just make sure you hit on your WRs and follow my lead and trust me. Hampton is going to burst onto the scene with his new run heavy offense with Mike McDaniel calling the shots. Chase Brown is going to get 70 catches with a lot of redzone opportunities thanks to this explosive offense. Plus, he has no competition behind him. A.J. Brown is going to eat and eat well in New England. Nico Collins recently lost his buddy in Jayden Higgins and is going to be a target hog all season. He’s consistent and Stroud loves him and will return 2nd round value safely.
Do Not Draft: George Pickens, Kyren Williams, Josh Jacobs, Rashee Rice
I’m sure a lot of you are disagreeing with me by now but for where these guys are being drafted, they will not return on your investment. Pickens only had elite numbers last year when CeeDee was out. I think he’s safe for 1,000 yards but he’s not going to explode like he did last year. Kyren Williams started giving up a lot of his touches to Blake Corum last year towards the end of the season and I expect Corum to be a much bigger factor this year. Josh Jacobs is also aging, hurt and dealing with drama. He’s a RB I’m just betting against with all of that being said. Rice also seems to be losing a step and there are other target favorites and Kansas City that Mahomes believes in. Travis Kelce is going to eat (not that he needs to if you saw his fatass role into camp).
Draft: Jeremiyah Love, Malik Nabers, Chris Olave, Breece Hall, Javonte Williams, DeVonta Smith
As we creep into the 3rd round tier of players, nothing is guaranteed at this point. Except DeVonta Smith. He’s an absolute safe pick and by now, I’m hoping you’re taking him as your WR2. If he’s your WR1, you’ll be fine if you scooped up a good RB and maybe one of those TEs. This will be the last time you get Love at this price so enjoy the bargain now because he’s the closest thing to Bijan and Gibbs from the eye test. Hopefully that translates to fantasy points in 2026. Nabers, if healthy, is sort of the same story. The fact that he’s priced at a 3rd/4th rounder this year is a steal. Scoop him up all day. Olave will get plenty of targets in an offense that will be even better than last year. Breece Hall is a safe pick, but I’m not crazy about him. His talent is what will keep him on the field and in fantasy lineups. Just beware, the Jets will still not score a lot of points. Javonte Williams is the RB I like the best right here. He proved he can take on a massive workload in what should be a top 5 offense in the league with the Cowboys.
Do Not Draft: Lamar Jackson, Tetairoa McMillan, Cam Skattebo, Travis Etienne, Colston Loveland
I’ve already told you how I feel about early QBs. They’re just not worth it. McMillan plays with the Keebler elf at QB so I think we already saw his ceiling. The talent is there but I can’t trust him. Skattebo hurts the most on this list because I loved him all offseason until Najee Harris was brought in. I think this backfield is a mess. Cam will have his days but he won’t be consistent. Etienne plays for the Saints and their run game was so bad last year, that even with improvements, I can’t touch this year. Loveland is a tight end I really like talent wise, but there have never been 3 TEs go for 1,000 yards in a single season. McBride and Bowers are locks in that regard so he’s too rich for my blood right now.
Draft: Tee Higgins, Ladd McConkey, Emeka Egbuka, Zay Flowers, Garrett Wilson
I don’t see a lot of arguing here except for maybe Zay Flowers and Garrett Wilson. But the guy continues to outperform his ADP every year and you can do the same this year. Great pick here. Tee Higgins in a full healthy season with Burrow makes him the best WR2 in the league and will put up Top 15 fantasy numbers. Ladd is my darkhorse for a JSN year. You all just wait! Egbuka takes on the WR1 role in Tampa now that Mike Evans is gone. His rookie year wasn’t a fluke and he’s going to continue the momentum. Wilson is one of those players where his talent is on display every game, but his poor QB play holds him back in fantasy. He’s proven he can still put up numbers and Geno Smith is technically an upgrade from what they had last year. He’s a star. All safe WR picks in this range.
Do Not Draft: Bucky Irving, Quinshon Judkins, TreVeyon Henderson
A little bit of the opposite here for RBs. I don’t trust any of these 3 if my life depended on it. The Bucs and Irving have so many red flags, they are hard to ignore. I don’t feel good about this offense in the slightest. Judkins plays on a Browns team that will not have many opportunities for scoring. Henderson can’t pass block, is already dealing with injuries and the Patriots still like Rhamondre even if he continues to have fumbling issues. Avoid all 3 of these guys.
Draft: David Montgomery, Jaylen Waddle, D’Andre Swift
Montgomery isn’t necessarily someone I love, but if you’re at this point in the draft and you pass on all the RBs I said to pass on, he’s a good option. He’s safer than a lot of these other guys. He’s healthy, proven and will get the bulk in his new home. Waddle is a homerun here. He’s going to be a star with Bo Nix and Sean Payton. You’re welcome. D’Andre Swift is a sneaky pick in this year’s draft because of the success this offense will have. He continues to put up big numbers and he’ll have plenty of receiving work. Monongai is already dealing with an injury as well so that also helps his case.
These players get you through your first 5 rounds and if you want to see more, go look at my sleepers article for this year. Once you have your core foundation in these first 5 picks (which should be a combination of RBs and WRs and maybe you got lucky with one of the good TEs), you start filling in bench players. I promise you, you can wait on a QB, but don’t wait TOO long on a tight end. If you miss out on the big dogs, I do like Tyler Warren, Tucker Kraft and Kyle Pitts in the middle of the round before you just wait entirely at the end. Draft smart and don’t ignore the red flags on people. Best of luck this year!
