NFL Week 9 Start/Sit
By: Andrew Ferguson
20-13 was the record last week. Not the best, but we’re still on the winning side of things and I’ve got some excuses to back me up. Pat Freiermuth had a tush push TD to salvage his 2 catch day. Who saw Omar Cooper getting 0 targets? Whatever, we move on. You can’t go off just the data and you have to trust your gut on some of these picks. But hey, we still made some really good picks so we have to be proud of that. As I say every week, we’re not looking at the obvious and the NFL is the hardest thing to predict. Did any of you see Ashton Jeanty getting only 2 carries to the rookie’s 25? See? It’s harder than it looks.
Only the Titans and Steelers have a bye so there’s plenty out there to fix those injury slots. Let’s get into week 9!
QBs to Start
Drew Lock- Whether it’s Lock or Darnold, the Seattle QBs seem to be a matchup start only and Arizona is as good as it gets. Last time Lock started, he threw 3 TDs (all to JSN), so he will have the green light against one of the easiest defenses for opposing QBs in the league. The run game still isn’t where it needs to be so I expect Lock to sling it.
Matthew Stafford- We’re not seeing the same Stafford we saw last year that won the MVP. We’re seeing more of the run game with a 2 headed monster. However this week, the Rams get the Commanders who are top 3 in allowing points to fantasy QBs. Stafford should be able to feed Puka and spread the ball around.
Michael Penix Jr.- This is a deeper/riskier play. Who in their right mind would start him after a 4 interception game? Well he’s worth a shot if you’re dealing with injuries or in a 2 QB league. The Bengals just let Cam Ward and the Titans put up 39 on them so this defense has fallen off quite a bit from the beginning of the season. Penix in good weather, can sling it and score points.
Dak Prescott- Anybody else having fun watching the Cowboys collapse every week? It makes being a Falcons fan a little easier watching others go through this. But with the defense keeping any opponent in the game for Dallas, Dak will be required to throw for 4 quarters every game it seems like. The Colts passing defense isn’t that good and Dak should have a day.
QBs to Sit
Baker Mayfield- I’m not even basing this off last week. The Bucs did the right thing by running the ball and winning in that hurricane they played in. It’s still too early to tell how healthy this thumb is and if it’s going to be another run game. Without Egbuka, this passing game doesn’t seem to be in a good place especially on the road in Chicago. Better streaming options out there if you can afford it.
Bryce Young- Have we seen him come back down to Earth? Maybe because he’s only completing 53% of his passes over the last 3 games. But I don’t like this matchup against Denver who keeps the scores low and figures out how to take over in the 4th quarter.
Geno Smith- He’s all or nothing to me. This week the Jets travel to Kansas City ranked in the top 5 in stopping opposing QBs. If the Jets are also missing Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, it’s another reason to not trust this offense and passing game
Kirk Cousins- This guy is having a freaking year and it’s hard to ignore it. Where the hell was this when he was in Atlanta? Well this might be the week it finally comes to a halt. The 49ers on the road is not a matchup that’s friendly for Cousins who rank top 10 in opposing QBs. I’m still concerned about the lack of run game and playmakers on the offense but Klint Kubiak is figuring it out and they’re scoring. I think Cousins is a gamble this week.
RBs to Start
Jonah Coleman- This backfield is now his. Even with Harvey hurt, Coleman dominated the snaps and goal line touches over Dobbins. I’m pretty sure Dobbins was already in his car heading home before the game ended.
Rhamondre Stevenson- TreVeyon Henderson does not like to play football so it leaves Stevenson as the starter every week. He gets the Packers at home who continue to get gashed by running backs as one of the worst in the league. Patriots should have a good day on offense.
Tyler Allgeier- Even though it’s a tough matchup against Seattle, Allgeier will demand most touches and get the red zone opportunities. Love is on the IR and Allgeier just became a starting running back by volume alone. Deploy.
Quinson Judkins- Watson may be out so I expect the Browns to lean on the run game against the Saints who don’t stop it well. Judkins will cede some touches to Sampson but Quinshon will get the goal line opportunities.
RBs to Sit
Josh Jacobs- Since his return, Jacobs has found the endzone 3 times and has been a blessing to this team’s run game. But let’s not forget how bad the O-line play was before his return. He’s going to have a tough day against New England’s elite run defense. I’m not sure Jacobs is an automatic, week-to-week starter, I think it depends on the matchup. Time will tell but I’m not comfortable playing him this week.
Saquon Barkley- This guy lives with a Q next to his name. The Eagles offense is so bad now and this season seems like a wash. Barkley is splitting time with whoever is healthy but he does keep finding the end zone. Instead of benching him, find a guy that’s big on names over production and try to trade him. Barkley is a flex play at best.
Cam Skattebo- He’s dealing with a hamstring injury so I think he’ll split a lot of touches anyway. He already got benched a game so is he completely out of the dog house? There are some red flags with Skattebo and I’m not just throwing him straight into my lineup. Play with caution.
Blake Corum- He’s had a great 4 game stretch but he is still the backup at the end of the day and backups come back down to Earth. The Commanders have a great run defense and a bad pass defense. I expect this to be a heavy pass game script for the Rams leaving Corum the odd man out.
WRs to Start
Parker Washington- Everyone’s favorite sleeper this year has had a couple duds so far. I expect a bounceback on Thursday Night Football. Without Tuten, Lawrence could be forced to throw more. The Ravens aren’t giving up so I don’t see this game turning into a blowout. The Ravens rank bottom 10 when trying to defend fantasy WRs. I like Washington to get back on track.
Ladd McConkey- McConkey is the only bright spot on this offense when healthy, which he finally is. Houston’s secondary has been somewhat of a surprise this year letting WRs eat. McConkey will get his volume and he’s a safe play.
Jordan Addison- Even if Murray is hurt, I still like this play. He was able to get things going last week and had a big completion of 51 yards. The Bills secondary gives up top 5 in points to WRs and have allowed 11 TDs to WRs. Addison is a sneaky play in the flex that could return some good numbers.
Devaughn Vele- Vele is quietly WR25 on the year and already had his bye week. He puts up consistent numbers, draws targets and finds the endzone every now and then. You can do a lot worse. It doesn’t sound like Jordyn Tyson is coming back this week so he’ll continue to operate as the number 2 behind Olave. The Browns secondary is beatable and Vele is worth a flex play.
WRs to Sit
Tetairoa McMillan- Outside of his one monster week, McMillan’s season has been pretty mediocre. Bryce Young isn’t playing as well and Denver ranks top 5 defending opposing WRs. Not a good matchup.
Makai Lemon- The rookie is starting to breakout a little, but if Devonta Smith comes back, he’s not worth starting. You never know what kind of QB play you’re going to get out of Philly this year and I’m not going to be a victim to find out.
KC Concepcion- Without Watson, this pass game takes even more of a hit because it wasn’t that great to begin with. I’ve said multiple times, I love his talent but he’s not in a good situation to show it off. I’m not sure going on the road to New Orleans is a matchup I’m willing to plug him in with.
Antonio Williams- Once McLaurin went down, a lot of people had high hopes for Williams and grabbed him off waivers. He’s getting a decent amount of targets as a desperate flex play but I don’t like the matchup against the Rams who rank top 5 in stopping opposing WRs.
TEs to Start
Tyler Warren- Colts offense is not good, especially with Daniel Jones leading the way. But outside of Jonathan Taylor, Warren is all they got to rely on. He didn’t put up great numbers last week but still drew in 10 targets so the opportunities will eventually lead to fantasy points. He gets to play against the Cowboys defense. Need I say more?
Brenton Strange- Strange is putting up reliable numbers as a TE2 over the last 4 weeks. Baltimore doesn’t stop TEs that great so with a pass heavy game on Thursday that I’m predicting, Strange could sneak in a lucky TD.
Kyle Pitts- Gross. I understand if you hate this man because I do sometimes. Before the hurricane game, he had 4 TDs in his last 3 games. I think Penix will get the ball out a lot this game against the Bengals who rank bottom 10 in defending TEs. Pitts can get back on track here.
Hunter Henry- Steadby better over here over his last month. He’s a solid TE2 that seems to be drawing targets and finding the endzone at times. Depending how your league is, he could be on waivers. He’s worth an add and a play if you have garbage TE play.
TEs to Sit
Oronde Gadsden- I hate this offense outside of Ladd McConkey. Houston isn’t a team to get cute with when looking for a TE on waivers. Go look somewhere else.
Dallas Goedert- I can’t trust anyone in this passing game right now. They’ll try to continue with the run game and when it comes time to pass, the Eagles won’t execute. Goedert was getting volume and goal line looks, but those days seem to be over.
Mark Andrews- His days of a top 2 TE are done. No Lamar means he won’t see the targets. Any production out of Andrews is unpredictable and I’m not risking it, especially against the Jaguars who defend opposing TEs quite well.
Tucker Kraft- The biggest name on the TE sit list this week. It may be a surprise and some of you aren’t willing to bench him in any matchup. My job is to tell you to be cautious because I don’t like this matchup. New England’s defense has played well lately and they don’t let TEs beat them. Temper your expectations.
