Fantasy Football BReakout players
By: Andrew Ferguson
Every fantasy football season, people get excited about the rookies coming into the league, hoping they explode right out the gate. Ja’Marr Chase was drafted with the 5th overall pick in the NFL draft in 2021 and of course, lived up to his hype in his rookie year. But what people forget about is the group of rookies that ‘underperformed’ in year one. The average NFL player doesn’t truly breakout until their 3rd season. In Chase’s draft class, Nico Collins and Amon-Ra St. Brown were drafted in the 3rd round. These guys seem to be doing pretty okay now. However, over the last 10 years, the expectation has jumped and we see rookie WRs and RBs put up 1,000 yards every year. But what I like to do is go back and look at the players that have been in the league for a couple years, have shown promise and given the opportunities, are due for a breakout. Especially if they’re in the right offense and situation. These are players that are mid to late round picks that could make a big difference on your fantasy team this year.
QB- Tennessee Titans: Cam Ward
Cam Ward was the number 1 pick last year. Don’t forget this guy is talented and the Titans were awful. Their coach was fired half way through the season. Please name one WR on this team from last year and don’t say Calvin Ridley because he didn’t do a thing for this team. I still don’t think the Titans are going to be good, but we’re not talking about teams making the playoffs, we’re talking about fantasy points. Robert Saleh is an experienced coach so the team overall will be better. But that’s not the big coaching hire I like. Brian Daboll comes in to call the offense and work with Cam Ward and remember, Daboll is the Josh Allen whisperer. Allegedly. I think Allen would’ve figured it out either way. But Ward too is a dual threat QB that hardly did any running last year. Not sure why, but I expect to see those opportunities go up. I always love a QB with rushing upside.
Cam Ward finished last year as a rookie at QB22. It could have been a lot worse with the situation he was in. So going into this year, they bring in a true WR1 for Ward to feed with Carnell Tate. And since they are going to be losing a lot, there will be plenty of garbage time for this team to chuck the ball around. And in weeks 12-17 last year, Ward averaged 15.4 fantasy points per game, and was QB14 in that stretch. What’s impressive though is that he threw a 9:1 TD/INT ratio during that span. So this could be a fantastic QB steal with one of your last picks. If he keeps the momentum from last year and improves from his QB14 stretch, he breaks into top 10 numbers, that puts him as a fantasy starting QB. And it could be even better. Ward/Daboll could be a deadly marriage. He’s currently being drafted at QB25 and will be a sure value steal. Stash him as the backup, or wait until your last pick to draft him as your starter.
RB- Denver Broncos: J.K. Dobbins
Alright, this guy has been around the block already and he doesn’t fit the mold of my previous descriptions of who should be in this article. But I really expect a big year from him so he deserves to be talked about. We recently found out that RJ Harvey underwent shoulder surgery in the offseason on his labrum. However, the Broncos say he’s fully cleared for camp. I don’t know what to believe but what I know with my 2 eyeballs is that J.K. Dobbins is legit and shoulder injuries don’t just go away. In week’s 1-9, Dobbins was RB14 and you probably got him pretty late as he was being drafted after RJ Harvey. Dobbins is still being disrespected and projected to be drafted at RB30. Remember my value component? Well at RB14, here’s what Dobbins was on pace for last year: 1,300 rushing yards and 8 TDs. Sprinkle in a few catches here and there and you have yourself a solid RB2. If Dobbins stays healthy, he controls the backfield and earns the goal line carries, those numbers get even better. He has Sean Peyton’s trust and will be the starter. Dobbins has a chance to break into top 10 numbers, even with RJ Harvey getting his volume.
RB- Chicago Bears: Kyle Monongai
I have a lot of faith in the Bears this year and by the time this article is over, you’ll probably think I’m some obsessed Bears guy. But I’m not, not even close. I just have a lot of faith in Caleb Williams, Ben Johnson and what this offense is going to do for fantasy football. Last year, Monongai finished the season as RB30, as the backup. There are 32 teams in the NFL so do the math. You can draft him after Swift so my favorite word (value) comes into play with him. In weeks 7-14 last year, he had a stretch where he scored in 5 out 8 games, averaged 12 points per game and averaged 4.6 YPC. Swift is only getting older, the Bears are only getting better and Monogai is a RB that earned his coaches trust for more opportunities. He’s the better in between tackles runner and for someone that’s currently being drafted in the 8th round, this guy could be a major steal. And if Swift misses any time, Monongai could sneak into RB1 territory. He will get the goal line carries and he’ll get a lot of rushing attempts. You’ll still see a lot of Swift but these 2 will compliment each other very well. We could see Monongai break the 1,000 yard mark this year and as your RB2 or RB3, that’s not too shabby.
WR- Chicago Bears: Luther Burden
See, I told you that you would be sick of the Bears by now. I hope you’ve made it this far so hear me out! I’m going to let you in on a little secret. Burden is the WR1 in Chicago. It’s not really a secret because he’s already projected to be drafted as WR21 while Odunze is projected at WR29. So the secret’s already out of the bag! Odunze’s stock this offseason has plummeted due to the fact he admitted to having a foot injury he will have to manage for the rest of his career. After getting off to a hot start in the first 4 weeks of the season, he completely vanished. For the rest of the season, he averaged 7 fantasy points per game and missed 5 games. Burden was the most productive WR on this roster for the Bears down the stretch, and that includes having DJ Moore on the roster. Which brings me to my next point. Moore had pretty pedestrian numbers in 2025 but his departure still opens up 85 more targets for the up and comers. Burden should feast as Caleb Williams’ new favorite target who scouts have also said he’s taking on more of an Amon-Ra St. Brown role in the offense. I expect Burden to get a lot of volume and the production will match.
I understand how a WR of his caliber that hasn’t fully proven himself can be a gamble in the 4th round, but everything is pointing up for him to have a big year and he’s got the QB and coach to make it happen. He’s a solid WR2 for any team.
WR- San Francisco 49ers: Ricky Pearsall
People forget Pearsall was a first round pick 2 years ago. So the 3rd year breakout can definitely happen here. Did you also forget he got shot and almost killed? If 50 Cent can make a comeback from 11 bullets, Pearsall can make it back from one! But in all seriousness, this guy has every reason to succeed and if he doesn’t, he’ll be entering bust territory (in real life and fantasy). Health is the biggest concern with him as he’s missed 16 games in his first 2 seasons. Yikes. The 49ers have been riddled with injuries since I can remember and if they can just stay healthy, I’m still a believer in Kyle Shanahan having a top tier offense and everybody will eat. I think Brock Purdy has a big year and Pearsall will benefit. There are so many weapons on this offense but the good news is, it will open up a lot of single coverage for Pearsall who earns a lot of target volume when they actually play together. In 2 years, Purdy and Pearsall have only been on the field together for 14 games. Give these 2 a full, healthy season and Pearsall will deliver.
Pearsall is currently going off the board at WR38. I honestly think a lot of people are turned off from what he’s delivered in the past and it’s a pretty high price tag this year, so he's someone that could slide down the boards during your draft. If that happens, this could be a bargain pick and a good WR3/4.
TE- Indianapolis Colts: Tyler Warren
In 2025, half way through the season, the Colts were one of the biggest surprises, especially on offense. They sat at 8-2, looking to clinch a one seed in the playoffs. Once they went into their week 10 bye, they never looked back. Back at a win that is. They lost every game and finished 8-9 and missed the playoffs entirely. What a collapse. A big part of that was Daniel Jones tearing his achilles in week 14, ending his season. But before that, Jonathan Taylor was in line for fantasy football MVP, Jones was QB5 for the season in fantasy, and Tyler Warren was having a historical rookie season at the TE position. Warren was averaging 10.6 points per game and ranked 4 in all of tight ends while Daniel Jones was at the helm. If Jones stayed healthy, Warren would’ve been on pace for right at a 1,000 yards. As a rookie! Warren is currently projected as the 4th TE off the board which is right where he averaged before the meltdown in Indianapolis occurred. After Bowers and McBride are gone, it’s every man/woman for themselves at the TE spot in fantasy. To me, Loveland, who’s projected the 3rd TE off the board, is a risky pick for how early he’s going. Warren you can get a round later and is a safer bet. Jones will be back to dump it off to him. But my favorite part about this breakout candidate is that there are 111 targets up for grabs since Michael Pittman is no longer in the picture. The Colts have hardly done anything to bring in more talent at the position and they expect Josh Downs to take on a bigger role. I like Tyler better. I’m confident in where Tyler Warren is being drafted and he has massive upside to break into the top 3 for the position. This isn’t to say he’s a sleeper by any means but it’s just to show I’m comfortable with taking him at his current ADP.
